The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposes to accelerate the implementation of the innovation driven development strategy and achieve high-level technological self-reliance and self-improvement. Guided by national strategic needs, gather forces to carry out innovative and leading technological breakthroughs, and resolutely win the battle for key core technologies.

The Chinese new energy vehicle industry is becoming a source of innovation for the world automotive industry, and the power battery, as the "heart" of new energy vehicles, is becoming a gathering point for innovation. The development path of diversified battery technology will supplement and enrich the development of the new energy battery market.

Recently, in the field of battery material innovation, sodium ion batteries have become the "new darling" of the power battery industry. Several companies, such as Volkswagen Sihao, Ningde Times, and BYD, have released plans and mass production capabilities for sodium ion batteries, and the commercialization process of sodium ion batteries is accelerating.

Given that more and more manufacturers are disclosing the performance indicators of their sodium ion battery products, and the initial formation of industry chains such as positive and negative electrode materials and electrolytes for sodium ion batteries, the industry believes that 2023 will be the "first year" of sodium ion battery industrialization. However, due to the low energy density and lack of scale effect of sodium ion batteries at present, car companies are more willing to adopt sodium ion batteries in low-end models.

From a cost perspective, the cost of sodium ion batteries is much lower than that of lithium ion batteries (hereinafter referred to as' lithium batteries'). In terms of the channels for obtaining mineral resources, the difficulty of obtaining raw materials for sodium ion batteries is much lower than that of obtaining lithium ore for lithium batteries. However, in terms of performance, the energy density of sodium ion batteries is currently far less than that of lithium iron phosphate, and further improvement is needed, "said Xuan Jiyou, General Manager of Qianmen Fund Reporter from China Business Daily.

Sodium ion batteries have become a new favorite

In 2023, the industrialization of sodium ion batteries has significantly accelerated. Recently, Volkswagen Sihao Flower Fairy conducted a sodium ion battery loading test, with a range of 252 kilometers.

It is reported that Sihao Flower Fairy's sodium ion battery pack, which uses honeycomb battery technology, is provided by Zhongke Haina. This product has three major advantages: long life, wide temperature range, and high power. According to public information, Zhongke Haina is the first high-tech enterprise in China to focus on the research and production of sodium ion batteries.

Coincidentally, Ningde Times and BYD have also released news about the installation of sodium ion batteries. The reporter from China Business Daily learned that Ningde Times will officially mass produce sodium ion batteries this year, and will be the first to be applied to A00 class cars. The first car is a modified version of SAIC KLEV, and the project has been designated.

As the first person in the industry to eat crabs, Ningde Times was the first to launch the first generation of sodium ion batteries in July 2021, with a single cell energy density of 160Wh/kg, setting the world's highest level. The energy density of the second generation sodium ion battery cells in Ningde Era is expected to reach 200Wh/kg.

According to multiple media reports, according to BYD's meeting minutes, BYD's sodium ion battery will be first installed on the A00 class seagull in the second quarter of this year, with a range of 300km. The sodium ion battery version is expected to sell for 60000 yuan. However, BYD denied this news.

According to the meeting minutes of BYD, as long as the lithium price is above 200000 yuan, BYD will make sodium ion batteries, which will be used in low range models as a supplement to lithium batteries.

The second generation sodium ion battery product of Honeycomb Energy is under development, and it is expected to complete the design finalization in the first quarter of 2023 with an energy density of 135Wh/kg. In the fourth quarter of 2023, it is planned to complete the development of 160Wh/kg sodium ion batteries, with an expected cycle life of over 2000 weeks.

Recently, Xinwangda stated on the investor interaction platform that the company is currently working on the development of sodium ion batteries, and the overall product development progress meets our expectations. According to the previously disclosed information, Xinwangda sodium ion battery samples are already undergoing testing and verification, and the specific marketing plan will be determined based on customer needs.

According to incomplete statistics, currently, Zhongke Haina, Huayang Group, Penghui Energy, Dofluoro, Funeng Technology, Xinwangda, and Meilian New Materials have publicly announced that they will form a mass production capacity for sodium ion batteries as soon as 2023.

Lower cost compared to lithium batteries

Cost advantages, performance advantages, and abundant reserves are important reasons for the popularity of sodium ion batteries in recent years.

In terms of cost, according to the estimation of Zhongke Haina, when the large-scale production of more than 100GWh is realized, the direct material cost per 1GWh of sodium ion battery is 30%~40% lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery.

In terms of performance, sodium ion batteries have faster charging speed, wider operating temperature range, and better safety compared to lithium batteries.

Gao Fei, Deputy Director of Honeycomb Energy Technology Center, pointed out that the low-temperature performance of sodium ion batteries is very good. Currently, the sodium ion batteries developed by Honeycomb Energy can discharge at 3C (30A current charge discharge) at -20 ℃, with a capacity retention rate of 97%.

In terms of charging speed, according to data provided by Ningde Times, its first generation sodium ion battery can be charged for 15 minutes at room temperature, with a charge capacity of over 80%. The sodium ion battery manufactured by Zhongke Haina can be charged to 90% in 12 minutes.

As for safety, the results of the honeycomb energy test show that the safety of sodium ion batteries is significantly better than that of lithium batteries. The 200 ℃ hot box and needle puncture do not explode, do not ignite, or emit smoke.

It is worth mentioning that sodium ion batteries and lithium batteries can quickly switch production lines. According to Huang Qisen, Vice President of Ningde Times Research Institute, in terms of manufacturing technology, sodium ion batteries can achieve perfect compatibility with lithium battery production equipment and processes, and production lines can be quickly switched to achieve rapid production capacity layout.

In addition, compared to lithium batteries, the resource reserve is also an advantage of sodium ion batteries. According to data from the United States Geological Survey, the global lithium metal resources in 2021 were approximately 89 million tons, and the global lithium metal reserves in 2021 were approximately 22 million tons. Chile, Australia, and Argentina together accounted for 78% of the reserves. Although the total amount of lithium resources is abundant, their distribution is uneven, leading to China's severe dependence on imports of lithium resources and facing the risk of raw material bottlenecks. But sodium resources do not have this risk. Sodium resources are not only abundant in total amount, but also widely distributed globally, in ores, salt lakes, and seawater.

However, sodium ion batteries are not omnipotent either. Compared to lithium batteries, their disadvantage is their low energy density. Currently, sodium ion batteries are more suitable for use in A0 class small models that pursue lower costs rather than high endurance.

"We estimate that the application of sodium ion batteries in the new energy vehicle market will start with A00 level electric vehicles, which is also the reason why we chose models like Sihao Huaxianzi for installation testing. Once the technology and performance of sodium ion batteries are further mature, they can be applied to medium to large electric vehicles" ,said the person in charge of Sihao New Energy.

Scale production still needs time

Although lithium batteries have many advantages such as high safety, long cycle life, and abundant resource reserves, in order to leverage their cost advantages, they must reach a certain scale.

At present, due to the failure of upstream material breakthroughs to meet expectations, the cost-effectiveness of sodium ion batteries is not as high as that of lithium batteries. BYD's judgment on this is that if the price of lithium batteries further decreases in 2023, the cost-effectiveness of sodium ion batteries will be lower.

The deeper reason is that sodium ion batteries have not yet formed a mature industrial chain. Wang Zidong, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automotive Power Battery Innovation Alliance, gave an example that the current cost of negative electrodes for sodium ion batteries is 3-5 times that of ternary positive electrode materials in China. This is because currently, most of the hard carbon used as the negative electrode for sodium ion batteries still needs to be imported.

"If there is no excess production capacity contribution from 2023 to 2025, when the cost of lithium drops to nearly 200000 Yuan perton , the advantage of (sodium ion batteries) will not be obvious, so the attitude towards sodium ion batteries should also be seen while walking. However, when the lithium price is still at a high level of 400000 Yuan perton from 2024 to 2025, sodium ion batteries have a window to play", BYD pointed out in the meeting minutes.

At a recent new energy battery summit, Yue Min, Chairman and President of Shenzhen Yanyi New Materials Co., Ltd., pointed out in a speech that "sodium ion batteries are very hot now, and sodium ion batteries will be the first batteries to be industrialized after lithium batteries. However, there are still many problems that need to be solved, and industrialization is not as optimistic as expected

If the sodium ion battery cannot afford it within three years, it will greatly affect the pace of industrialization. Because lithium prices are so high now, if the sodium ion battery cannot afford it, when the lithium price drops to within 150000 Yuan perton, the development of sodium ion batteries will be affected, "said Yue Min.

In 2023, the price of lithium has significantly decreased compared to the skyrocketing price of 600000 Yuan perton in 2022. Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred Talents Association, predicted that "the lithium price will further return to 350000~400000 Yuan perton in the second half of this year. In the future, a more reasonable price balance point may be 200000 Yuan perton."

If the price of lithium gradually decreases to 200000 Yuan perton, and the cost reduction of sodium ion batteries cannot be achieved due to the lack of mass production, it will be in an awkward situation. Only after being scaled can its cost be significantly lower than that of lithium batteries.